Global risk regime: concentration, the US dollar and inflation

What it is about

Alfredo Pinel, Executive Director and Investment Strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, presented at the Fourth Annual Risk Conference (September 18, 2026) an overview of global markets prepared for the Club on September 18, 2026. The presentation is in English; its final pages contain the firm legal disclosures and the material is educational, not an investment offer.

The 23 content slides, with data as of September 11, 2026, follow three threads: market concentration around artificial intelligence capital spending and the effect on emerging and Latin American markets; the US dollar and the possibility that stronger global growth weakens it; and inflation, term premiums and the correlation between stocks and bonds, with the role of real assets and gold.

Objectives

• Show how market concentration in artificial intelligence conditions global risk.
• Analyze the role of the dollar and its implications for emerging and Latin American markets.
• Review the effect of inflation and rates on portfolios, diversification and safe-haven assets.

Key takeaways

1. According to the presentation, the market has been driven by artificial intelligence capital spending and that trade shows signs of exhaustion.
2. Latin American equities help diversify exposure to artificial intelligence, and the region looks poised for an investment cycle.
3. The dollar remains structurally strong, but stronger global growth could weaken it, which would boost emerging market bonds.
4. Term premiums are rising because of quantitative tightening and the correlation between stocks and bonds remains elevated; real assets have gained appeal in portfolios.
5. Gold has been a reliable safe haven since COVID, with central bank purchases putting a floor under it, and private credit is booming with risks.