{"id":26354,"date":"2026-03-20T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-20T13:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/?p=26354"},"modified":"2026-10-12T21:43:49","modified_gmt":"2026-10-13T01:43:49","slug":"bis-working-paper-1338-global-banking-and-geopolitics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/bis-working-paper-1338-global-banking-and-geopolitics\/","title":{"rendered":"Global banking and geopolitics through time"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"fusion-fullwidth fullwidth-box fusion-builder-row-1 fusion-flex-container nonhundred-percent-fullwidth non-hundred-percent-height-scrolling\" 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class=\"cgp-intro\">\n<p class=\"cgp-kind\">Research \u00b7 International body<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"cgp-title\">Global banking and geopolitics through time<\/h2>\n<p class=\"cgp-lead\">Geopolitics affects international bank credit asymmetrically: bad news reduces it and good news does not restore it.<\/p>\n<dl class=\"cgp-facts\"><div><dt>Organization<\/dt><dd>Bank for International Settlements (BIS)<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Document date<\/dt><dd>20 March 2026<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Type<\/dt><dd>Research<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Language<\/dt><dd>English<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Scope<\/dt><dd>International<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Length<\/dt><dd>45 pages<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Authorship<\/dt><dd>Lorenz Emter, Laura Kuitunen, Arnaud Mehl, Peter McQuade, Swapan Pradhan and Goetz von Peter<\/dd><\/div><\/dl>\n<div class=\"cgp-actions\"><a class=\"cgp-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bis.org\/publications\/working-paper-1338-global-banking-and-geopolitics-through-time\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><svg viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M14 4h6v6\"\/><path d=\"M20 4l-9 9\"\/><path d=\"M18 14v5a1 1 0 0 1-1 1H5a1 1 0 0 1-1-1V7a1 1 0 0 1 1-1h5\"\/><\/svg>See the official source<\/a><a class=\"cgp-btn alt\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bis.org\/publications\/working-paper-1338-global-banking-and-geopolitics-through-time.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><svg viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M7 3h7l5 5v12a1 1 0 0 1-1 1H7a1 1 0 0 1-1-1V4a1 1 0 0 1 1-1z\"\/><path d=\"M14 3v5h5\"\/><path d=\"M9 14h6\"\/><path d=\"M9 17h4\"\/><\/svg>PDF document<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"cgp-body\">\n<div class=\"cgp-main\">\n<h3>What it contains<\/h3>\n<p>BIS Working Paper No 1338, published on 20 March 2026 by Lorenz Emter, Laura Kuitunen, Arnaud Mehl, Peter McQuade, Swapan Pradhan and Goetz von Peter, examines asymmetries in the effects of geopolitical events on international bank credit, contrasting adverse events, such as the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with positive events, such as the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. Using confidential data from the BIS international banking statistics from 1977 to 2024, it analyses credit dynamics between up to 12,000 pairs of countries through the lens of their geopolitical differences, with gravity models as the benchmark.<\/p><p>The results show that geopolitical differences affect international banking activity over time: negative events reduce credit by 10 to 20% more between geopolitical blocs than within blocs, while positive events have no comparable effect on credit, even when they boost trade flows. The authors suggest that the asymmetry stems from the higher level of trust required for international bank credit compared with trade in goods, because the former has a more pronounced intertemporal dimension and demands a greater commitment over time.<\/p><p>The study notes that the literature on geopolitical fragmentation has concentrated on trade and foreign direct investment, less on finance, and on the effects of negative events and of 2022; its analysis covers several historical episodes and offers a long-run empirical basis for thinking about country risk, cross-border exposures and the resilience of credit flows. The views are the authors\u2019 own and do not necessarily reflect those of the BIS, the ECB and the Eurosystem, or the member central banks.<\/p>\n<section class=\"cgp-importa\"><h3>Why it matters for risk management<\/h3><p>It offers long-run empirical evidence for stress scenarios with geopolitical shocks, for country risk and for credit lines with banks abroad: the credit restriction can be strong and slow to reverse. It is BIS research on the whole set of countries, not on the Dominican Republic.<\/p><\/section>\n<p class=\"cgp-note\">Summary prepared by the Dominican Republic Risk Management Club from a reading of the original document, with the source verified on 12 October 2026. It does not replace reading the official text and is not advice.<\/p>\n<p class=\"cgp-back\"><a href=\"\/en\/publicaciones\/\">See all publications<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"cgp-side\">\n<section class=\"cgp-card\"><h3>Key points<\/h3><ul class=\"cgp-points\"><li>Confidential data from the BIS international banking statistics from 1977 to 2024, up to 12,000 country pairs.<\/li><li>Adverse geopolitical events reduce credit by 10 to 20% more between blocs than within them.<\/li><li>Positive events do not produce a comparable effect on credit, even though they boost trade.<\/li><li>Hypothesis: international bank credit requires more trust and commitment over time than trade in goods.<\/li><li>It provides evidence for assessing country risk and the fragility of cross-border credit flows under geopolitical shocks.<\/li><\/ul><\/section>\n<section class=\"cgp-card\"><h3>How to cite it<\/h3><p class=\"cgp-cite\">Emter, L., Kuitunen, L., Mehl, A., McQuade, P., Pradhan, S. and von Peter, G. (2026). Global banking and geopolitics through time. BIS Working Papers, No 1338. Basel: Bank for International Settlements, 20 March 2026.<\/p><\/section>\n<section class=\"cgp-card\"><h3>Topics<\/h3><ul class=\"cgp-chips\"><li><a href=\"\/en\/publicaciones\/?tema=riesgos-globales\">Global risks<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"\/en\/publicaciones\/?tema=estabilidad-financiera\">Financial stability<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"\/en\/publicaciones\/?tema=riesgo-de-credito-y-contraparte\">Credit and counterparty risk<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/section>\n<\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><link rel=\"stylesheet\" href=\"https:\/\/fonts.googleapis.com\/css2?family=Zilla+Slab:wght@500;600&display=swap\">\n<footer id=\"cgr-foot\" aria-label=\"Footer of the Risk Management Club\">\n<style>\n#main{padding-bottom:0!important}\n.fusion-fullwidth:has(#cgr-foot),.fusion-layout-column:has(#cgr-foot){padding-bottom:0!important;margin-bottom:0!important}\n#cgr-foot{--navy:#0E3351;--blue:#186392;--web:#1A80B6;--red:#E22A3A;--ink:#1C2632;--slate:#5B6775;--line:#D9E1EA;--mist:#F2F5F8;\n  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All rights reserved.<\/p><\/div>\n  <nav class=\"cgf-pol\" aria-label=\"Policies\">\n    <a href=\"\/en\/politicasdeprivacidad\/\">Privacy<\/a><a href=\"\/en\/terminos-y-condiciones-2\/\">Terms and Conditions<\/a><a href=\"\/en\/politicas-de-entrega\/\">Delivery<\/a><a href=\"\/en\/politicas-de-cancelacion\/\">Cancellation<\/a><a href=\"\/en\/politicas-de-devolucion\/\">Returns<\/a><a href=\"\/en\/politicas-de-reembolso\/\">Refunds<\/a><a href=\"\/en\/politicas-de-seguridad\/\">Security<\/a><a href=\"\/en\/preguntas-frecuentes\/\">Frequently asked questions<\/a>\n  <\/nav>\n<\/div>\n<\/footer>\n\n<style>#cgr-foot .cgf-ct li a.cgf-wa{display:inline-flex;vertical-align:middle;margin-left:8px}#cgr-foot .cgf-ct li a.cgf-wa svg{width:18px;height:18px;margin:0;fill:#25D366;stroke:none}<\/style><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Using BIS international banking statistics from 1977 to 2024, the study finds that adverse geopolitical events reduce credit between blocs by 10 to 20% more than within them, while positive events have no comparable effect.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":26353,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":true,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"cgp_org":"Banco de Pagos Internacionales","cgp_siglas":"BIS","cgp_tipo":"Investigaci\u00f3n","cgp_fecha":"2026-03-20","cgp_url":"https:\/\/www.bis.org\/publications\/working-paper-1338-global-banking-and-geopolitics-through-time","cgp_pdf":"https:\/\/www.bis.org\/publications\/working-paper-1338-global-banking-and-geopolitics-through-time.pdf","cgp_idioma":"Ingl\u00e9s","cgp_pais":"Internacional","cgp_temas":"Riesgos globales,Estabilidad financiera,Riesgo de cr\u00e9dito y contraparte","cgp_portada":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/pub-bis-working-paper-1338-global-banking-and-geopolitics.jpg","cgp_verificado":"2026-10-12","cgp_origen":"nueva","cgp_fuente":"Organismo internacional","cgp_paginas":"45","cgp_autores":"Lorenz Emter, Laura Kuitunen, Arnaud Mehl, Peter McQuade, Swapan Pradhan y Goetz von Peter","cgp_fecha_texto":"","cgp_portada_tipo":"doc","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[74],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26354","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-publicaciones-del-sector"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/pub-bis-working-paper-1338-global-banking-and-geopolitics.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26354","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26354"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26354\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":26355,"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26354\/revisions\/26355"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/26353"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26354"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26354"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26354"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}