{"id":26342,"date":"2026-01-22T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-22T13:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/?p=26342"},"modified":"2026-10-12T21:26:13","modified_gmt":"2026-10-13T01:26:13","slug":"ecb-esrb-financial-stability-risks-geoeconomic-fragmentation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/ecb-esrb-financial-stability-risks-geoeconomic-fragmentation\/","title":{"rendered":"Financial stability risks from geoeconomic fragmentation"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"fusion-fullwidth fullwidth-box fusion-builder-row-1 fusion-flex-container nonhundred-percent-fullwidth non-hundred-percent-height-scrolling\" 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.cgp-cover.cgp-doc{aspect-ratio:4\/3}#cgr-pub .cgp-head{grid-template-columns:minmax(0,1fr);gap:26px}#cgr-pub .cgp-body{grid-template-columns:minmax(0,1fr);gap:30px}#cgr-pub .cgp-side{position:static}}\n@media(max-width:520px){#cgr-pub{font-size:16px}#cgr-pub .cgp-facts{grid-template-columns:minmax(0,1fr)}#cgr-pub .cgp-btn{width:100%;justify-content:center}}\n<\/style>\n<div id=\"cgr-pub\">\n<header class=\"cgp-head\">\n<figure class=\"cgp-cover cgp-doc\"><i style=\"background-image:url(https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/pub-ecb-esrb-financial-stability-risks-geoeconomic-fragmentation.jpg?v=1791854737)\"><\/i><img fetchpriority=\"high\" src=\"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/pub-ecb-esrb-financial-stability-risks-geoeconomic-fragmentation.jpg?v=1791854737\" width=\"720\" height=\"1018\" alt=\"Primera p\u00e1gina del documento: Financial stability risks from geoeconomic fragmentation\" loading=\"eager\" decoding=\"async\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"cgp-intro\">\n<p class=\"cgp-kind\">Report \u00b7 Supervisor<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"cgp-title\">Financial stability risks from geoeconomic fragmentation<\/h2>\n<p class=\"cgp-lead\">The ECB and the European Systemic Risk Board offer a framework for bringing geopolitical risk into financial stability analysis.<\/p>\n<dl class=\"cgp-facts\"><div><dt>Organization<\/dt><dd>European Central Bank (ECB) and European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB)<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Document date<\/dt><dd>22 January 2026<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Type<\/dt><dd>Report<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Language<\/dt><dd>English<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Scope<\/dt><dd>European Union<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Length<\/dt><dd>93 pages<\/dd><\/div><\/dl>\n<div class=\"cgp-actions\"><a class=\"cgp-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ecb.europa.eu\/press\/pr\/date\/2026\/html\/ecb.pr260122~0b138afc39.en.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><svg viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M14 4h6v6\"\/><path d=\"M20 4l-9 9\"\/><path d=\"M18 14v5a1 1 0 0 1-1 1H5a1 1 0 0 1-1-1V7a1 1 0 0 1 1-1h5\"\/><\/svg>See the official source<\/a><a class=\"cgp-btn alt\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ecb.europa.eu\/pub\/pdf\/other\/ecb.report202601_financialstabilityrisks.en.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><svg viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M7 3h7l5 5v12a1 1 0 0 1-1 1H7a1 1 0 0 1-1-1V4a1 1 0 0 1 1-1z\"\/><path d=\"M14 3v5h5\"\/><path d=\"M9 14h6\"\/><path d=\"M9 17h4\"\/><\/svg>PDF document<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"cgp-body\">\n<div class=\"cgp-main\">\n<h3>What it contains<\/h3>\n<p>The report, published on 22 January 2026 by the joint ECB and European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) workstream on financial stability risks from geoeconomic fragmentation, examines the link between geopolitical and geoeconomic risks and financial stability. It provides a framework for regular monitoring with 40 indicators in five categories: military conflicts and wars, infrastructure vulnerabilities (including energy and digital), trade disruptions and sanctions, capital and financial risks, and political or societal factors. It identifies three transmission channels, the financial, the real economy and the operational, and focuses on the financial one.<\/p><p>The indicators confirm that geopolitical risks have intensified, with a jump in economic and trade policy uncertainty in 2024 and 2025 and a 27% rise in trade disputes at the WTO between 2015 and 2024. Even so, financial volatility has stayed contained or reverted soon after short-lived spikes. Growth-at-risk (GaR) models show that geopolitical indicators lower expected growth and, since 2014, have taken one to two percentage points off GaR; geopolitical shocks and uncertainty raise systemic stress, reduce loan growth and tighten lending conditions. Economies more open to trade or with higher public debt appear more vulnerable to amplification.<\/p><p>In the granular analysis, both banks and non-banks reduce lending, especially cross-border, after geopolitical shocks: euro area banks with less capital headroom or large exposures to high-risk countries reduced the probability of new lending relationships (by about 6%) and the average loan amount (by 9%), and non-bank financial institutions cut exposures to the rest of the world (17%) more than domestic ones (7%) after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The macro-financial stress tests illustrate the stabilising role of a sound and well-capitalised financial system. The report acknowledges data gaps and proposes complementing the indicators with scenario analysis.<\/p>\n<section class=\"cgp-importa\"><h3>Why it matters for risk management<\/h3><p>It gives a list of indicators and a methodology for building geopolitical risk into stress scenarios, risk appetite and the monitoring of cross-border and sovereign exposures. It is calibrated for the European Union; in the Dominican Republic its indicators and results need to be adapted to an open economy and to each institution\u2019s own exposure.<\/p><\/section>\n<p class=\"cgp-note\">Summary prepared by the Dominican Republic Risk Management Club from a reading of the original document, with the source verified on 12 October 2026. It does not replace reading the official text and is not advice.<\/p>\n<p class=\"cgp-back\"><a href=\"\/en\/publicaciones\/\">See all publications<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"cgp-side\">\n<section class=\"cgp-card\"><h3>Key points<\/h3><ul class=\"cgp-points\"><li>A monitoring framework with 40 indicators in five categories of geopolitical risk, which can be built into financial stability frameworks.<\/li><li>Policy uncertainty rose sharply in 2024 and 2025, while financial volatility stayed contained or reverted soon.<\/li><li>Geopolitical indicators have taken one to two percentage points off growth-at-risk since 2014.<\/li><li>Banks and non-banks reduce lending, especially cross-border, after geopolitical shocks.<\/li><li>More vulnerable: economies with greater trade openness or high public debt; scenario analysis is recommended as a complement.<\/li><\/ul><\/section>\n<section class=\"cgp-card\"><h3>How to cite it<\/h3><p class=\"cgp-cite\">European Central Bank and European Systemic Risk Board (2026). Financial stability risks from geoeconomic fragmentation. ECB\/ESRB workstream report. Frankfurt: ECB, 22 January 2026.<\/p><\/section>\n<section class=\"cgp-card\"><h3>Topics<\/h3><ul class=\"cgp-chips\"><li><a href=\"\/en\/publicaciones\/?tema=riesgos-globales\">Global risks<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"\/en\/publicaciones\/?tema=estabilidad-financiera\">Financial stability<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"\/en\/publicaciones\/?tema=pruebas-de-estres\">Stress tests<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/section>\n<\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><link rel=\"stylesheet\" href=\"https:\/\/fonts.googleapis.com\/css2?family=Zilla+Slab:wght@500;600&display=swap\">\n<footer id=\"cgr-foot\" aria-label=\"Footer of the Risk Management Club\">\n<style>\n#main{padding-bottom:0!important}\n.fusion-fullwidth:has(#cgr-foot),.fusion-layout-column:has(#cgr-foot){padding-bottom:0!important;margin-bottom:0!important}\n#cgr-foot{--navy:#0E3351;--blue:#186392;--web:#1A80B6;--red:#E22A3A;--ink:#1C2632;--slate:#5B6775;--line:#D9E1EA;--mist:#F2F5F8;\n  position:relative;margin:96px 0 0;padding:0;background:var(--mist);box-shadow:0 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All rights reserved.<\/p><\/div>\n  <nav class=\"cgf-pol\" aria-label=\"Policies\">\n    <a href=\"\/en\/politicasdeprivacidad\/\">Privacy<\/a><a href=\"\/en\/terminos-y-condiciones-2\/\">Terms and Conditions<\/a><a href=\"\/en\/politicas-de-entrega\/\">Delivery<\/a><a href=\"\/en\/politicas-de-cancelacion\/\">Cancellation<\/a><a href=\"\/en\/politicas-de-devolucion\/\">Returns<\/a><a href=\"\/en\/politicas-de-reembolso\/\">Refunds<\/a><a href=\"\/en\/politicas-de-seguridad\/\">Security<\/a><a href=\"\/en\/preguntas-frecuentes\/\">Frequently asked questions<\/a>\n  <\/nav>\n<\/div>\n<\/footer>\n\n<style>#cgr-foot .cgf-ct li a.cgf-wa{display:inline-flex;vertical-align:middle;margin-left:8px}#cgr-foot .cgf-ct li a.cgf-wa svg{width:18px;height:18px;margin:0;fill:#25D366;stroke:none}<\/style><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A joint ECB and ESRB report that proposes a monitoring framework with 40 geopolitical risk indicators: geopolitical shocks tighten financial conditions, raise risk premia and reduce credit, while market volatility has stayed contained.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":26341,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":true,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"cgp_org":"Banco Central Europeo (BCE) y Junta Europea de Riesgo Sist\u00e9mico (JERS)","cgp_siglas":"BCE\/JERS","cgp_tipo":"Informe","cgp_fecha":"2026-01-22","cgp_url":"https:\/\/www.ecb.europa.eu\/press\/pr\/date\/2026\/html\/ecb.pr260122~0b138afc39.en.html","cgp_pdf":"https:\/\/www.ecb.europa.eu\/pub\/pdf\/other\/ecb.report202601_financialstabilityrisks.en.pdf","cgp_idioma":"Ingl\u00e9s","cgp_pais":"Uni\u00f3n Europea","cgp_temas":"Riesgos globales,Estabilidad financiera,Pruebas de estr\u00e9s","cgp_portada":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/pub-ecb-esrb-financial-stability-risks-geoeconomic-fragmentation.jpg","cgp_verificado":"2026-10-12","cgp_origen":"nueva","cgp_fuente":"Supervisor","cgp_paginas":"93","cgp_autores":"","cgp_fecha_texto":"","cgp_portada_tipo":"doc","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[74],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26342","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-publicaciones-del-sector"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/pub-ecb-esrb-financial-stability-risks-geoeconomic-fragmentation.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26342","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26342"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26342\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":26343,"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26342\/revisions\/26343"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/26341"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26342"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26342"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26342"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}