{"id":26306,"date":"2025-11-05T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-05T13:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/?p=26306"},"modified":"2026-10-12T20:51:05","modified_gmt":"2026-10-13T00:51:05","slug":"eba-guidelines-environmental-scenario-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/eba-guidelines-environmental-scenario-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"Guidelines on environmental scenario analysis: final report"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"fusion-fullwidth fullwidth-box fusion-builder-row-1 fusion-flex-container nonhundred-percent-fullwidth non-hundred-percent-height-scrolling\" 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.cgp-cover.cgp-doc{aspect-ratio:4\/3}#cgr-pub .cgp-head{grid-template-columns:minmax(0,1fr);gap:26px}#cgr-pub .cgp-body{grid-template-columns:minmax(0,1fr);gap:30px}#cgr-pub .cgp-side{position:static}}\n@media(max-width:520px){#cgr-pub{font-size:16px}#cgr-pub .cgp-facts{grid-template-columns:minmax(0,1fr)}#cgr-pub .cgp-btn{width:100%;justify-content:center}}\n<\/style>\n<div id=\"cgr-pub\">\n<header class=\"cgp-head\">\n<figure class=\"cgp-cover cgp-doc\"><i style=\"background-image:url(https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/pub-eba-guidelines-environmental-scenario-analysis.jpg?v=1791852629)\"><\/i><img fetchpriority=\"high\" src=\"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/pub-eba-guidelines-environmental-scenario-analysis.jpg?v=1791852629\" width=\"720\" height=\"1019\" alt=\"Primera p\u00e1gina del documento: Guidelines on environmental scenario analysis: final report\" loading=\"eager\" decoding=\"async\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"cgp-intro\">\n<p class=\"cgp-kind\">Guide \u00b7 Supervisor<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"cgp-title\">Guidelines on environmental scenario analysis: final report<\/h2>\n<p class=\"cgp-lead\">The EBA specifies how institutions should use climate and environmental scenarios, both in short-term stress tests and to test their business model.<\/p>\n<dl class=\"cgp-facts\"><div><dt>Organization<\/dt><dd>European Banking Authority (EBA)<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Document date<\/dt><dd>5 November 2025<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Type<\/dt><dd>Guide<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Language<\/dt><dd>English<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Scope<\/dt><dd>European Union<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Length<\/dt><dd>77 pages<\/dd><\/div><\/dl>\n<div class=\"cgp-actions\"><a class=\"cgp-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/www.eba.europa.eu\/publications-and-media\/press-releases\/eba-publishes-its-final-guidelines-environmental-scenario-analysis\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><svg viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M14 4h6v6\"\/><path d=\"M20 4l-9 9\"\/><path d=\"M18 14v5a1 1 0 0 1-1 1H5a1 1 0 0 1-1-1V7a1 1 0 0 1 1-1h5\"\/><\/svg>See the official source<\/a><a class=\"cgp-btn alt\" href=\"https:\/\/www.eba.europa.eu\/sites\/default\/files\/2025-11\/170da4c8-9b56-4fb0-ad60-94d433b7e866\/Guidelines%20on%20environmental%20scenario%20analysis.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><svg viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M7 3h7l5 5v12a1 1 0 0 1-1 1H7a1 1 0 0 1-1-1V4a1 1 0 0 1 1-1z\"\/><path d=\"M14 3v5h5\"\/><path d=\"M9 14h6\"\/><path d=\"M9 17h4\"\/><\/svg>PDF document<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"cgp-body\">\n<div class=\"cgp-main\">\n<h3>What it contains<\/h3>\n<p>The final report on the EBA\u2019s guidelines on environmental scenario analysis (EBA\/GL\/2025\/04), dated 5 November 2025, complements the guidelines on the management of ESG risks of 9 January 2025. It defines scenario analysis as the process of identifying and assessing how a range of plausible future states of the world could affect an institution\u2019s strategy and exposures, from simple qualitative approaches to sophisticated methods. They focus on environmental risks, starting with climate-related ones; social and governance factors are left out because their approaches are not yet sufficiently mature, and they may be considered in future updates.<\/p><p>The guidelines distinguish two uses: testing financial resilience to severe shocks in the short term and verifying capital and liquidity adequacy, and challenging the resilience of the business model, including in the medium to long term. They give guidance on the uses of scenario analysis, with a progressive and proportionate approach; on the prerequisites, with emphasis on identifying the transmission channels that turn climate risks into financial impacts and on the criteria for setting scenarios; and on a simplified approach in the form of sensitivity analysis. They also detail the particularities of an environmental stress test, as a complement to the guidelines on institutions\u2019 stress testing, and how scenario analysis can sharpen strategy.<\/p><p>For institutions using the internal ratings-based (IRB) approach, they specify how physical and transition risks from climate change enter the scenarios of internal credit risk stress tests, on the basis of Article 177(2a) of Regulation (EU) No 575\/2013. They apply from 1 January 2027 and institutions are expected to develop their capabilities gradually. The deadline for authorities to report whether they comply expires two months after the translations are published.<\/p>\n<section class=\"cgp-importa\"><h3>Why it matters for risk management<\/h3><p>It offers practical guidance for designing climate scenarios, linking them with credit risk and with internal stress tests and justifying the level of sophistication proportionately. It is addressed to European supervisors and institutions; for the Dominican Republic it serves as a comparative reference, adapting scenarios and data to local exposure and sources.<\/p><\/section>\n<p class=\"cgp-note\">Summary prepared by the Dominican Republic Risk Management Club from a reading of the original document, with the source verified on 12 October 2026. It does not replace reading the official text and is not advice.<\/p>\n<p class=\"cgp-back\"><a href=\"\/en\/publicaciones\/\">See all publications<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"cgp-side\">\n<section class=\"cgp-card\"><h3>Key points<\/h3><ul class=\"cgp-points\"><li>They complement the January 2025 guidelines on the management of ESG risks.<\/li><li>They focus on environmental risks, starting with climate-related ones; social and governance factors are left out for now.<\/li><li>Two uses of scenario analysis: short-term financial resilience and medium- to long-term business model resilience.<\/li><li>Emphasis on the transmission channels from climate risks to financial results; a simplified sensitivity analysis approach is allowed.<\/li><li>They apply from 1 January 2027, with capabilities developed gradually.<\/li><\/ul><\/section>\n<section class=\"cgp-card\"><h3>How to cite it<\/h3><p class=\"cgp-cite\">European Banking Authority (2025). Final report: Guidelines on environmental scenario analysis (EBA\/GL\/2025\/04). Paris: EBA, 5 November 2025.<\/p><\/section>\n<section class=\"cgp-card\"><h3>Topics<\/h3><ul class=\"cgp-chips\"><li><a href=\"\/en\/publicaciones\/?tema=asg-y-clima\">ESG and climate<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"\/en\/publicaciones\/?tema=pruebas-de-estres\">Stress tests<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"\/en\/publicaciones\/?tema=normativa-y-gobierno-corporativo\">Regulation and corporate governance<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/section>\n<\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><link rel=\"stylesheet\" href=\"https:\/\/fonts.googleapis.com\/css2?family=Zilla+Slab:wght@500;600&display=swap\">\n<footer id=\"cgr-foot\" aria-label=\"Footer of the Risk Management Club\">\n<style>\n#main{padding-bottom:0!important}\n.fusion-fullwidth:has(#cgr-foot),.fusion-layout-column:has(#cgr-foot){padding-bottom:0!important;margin-bottom:0!important}\n#cgr-foot{--navy:#0E3351;--blue:#186392;--web:#1A80B6;--red:#E22A3A;--ink:#1C2632;--slate:#5B6775;--line:#D9E1EA;--mist:#F2F5F8;\n  position:relative;margin:96px 0 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Av. Tiradentes at the corner of Presidente Gonz\u00e1lez, Ensanche Naco, Santo Domingo<\/span><\/li>\n      <li><svg viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M5 4h4l2 5-2.5 1.5a11 11 0 0 0 5 5L15 13l5 2v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2A16 16 0 0 1 3 6a2 2 0 0 1 2-2\"\/><\/svg><span><a href=\"tel:+18097453289\">809-745-3289<\/a><br><a href=\"tel:+18494774959\">849-477-4959<\/a><a class=\"cgf-wa\" href=\"https:\/\/wa.me\/18494774959\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" aria-label=\"Escribir por WhatsApp al 849-477-4959 (se abre en una pesta\u00f1a nueva)\" title=\"WhatsApp\"><svg viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M17.472 14.382c-.297-.149-1.758-.867-2.03-.967-.273-.099-.471-.148-.67.15-.197.297-.767.966-.94 1.164-.173.199-.347.223-.644.075-.297-.15-1.255-.463-2.39-1.475-.883-.788-1.48-1.761-1.653-2.059-.173-.297-.018-.458.13-.606.134-.133.298-.347.446-.52.149-.174.198-.298.298-.497.099-.198.05-.371-.025-.52-.075-.149-.669-1.612-.916-2.207-.242-.579-.487-.5-.669-.51-.173-.008-.371-.01-.57-.01-.198 0-.52.074-.792.372-.272.297-1.04 1.016-1.04 2.479 0 1.462 1.065 2.875 1.213 3.074.149.198 2.096 3.2 5.077 4.487.709.306 1.262.489 1.694.625.712.227 1.36.195 1.871.118.571-.085 1.758-.719 2.006-1.413.248-.694.248-1.289.173-1.413-.074-.124-.272-.198-.57-.347m-5.421 7.403h-.004a9.87 9.87 0 01-5.031-1.378l-.361-.214-3.741.982.998-3.648-.235-.374a9.86 9.86 0 01-1.51-5.26c.001-5.45 4.436-9.884 9.888-9.884 2.64 0 5.122 1.03 6.988 2.898a9.825 9.825 0 012.893 6.994c-.003 5.45-4.437 9.884-9.885 9.884m8.413-18.297A11.815 11.815 0 0012.05 0C5.495 0 .16 5.335.157 11.892c0 2.096.547 4.142 1.588 5.945L.057 24l6.305-1.654a11.882 11.882 0 005.683 1.448h.005c6.554 0 11.89-5.335 11.893-11.893a11.821 11.821 0 00-3.48-8.413Z\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/span><\/li>\n      <li><svg viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><rect x=\"3\" y=\"5\" width=\"18\" height=\"14\" rx=\"2\"\/><path d=\"m3.5 6.5 8.5 6.5 8.5-6.5\"\/><\/svg><a href=\"mailto:info@gestionderiesgo.org\">info@gestionderiesgo.org<\/a><\/li>\n      <li><svg viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><circle cx=\"12\" cy=\"12\" r=\"9\"\/><path d=\"M12 7v5l3 2\"\/><\/svg><span>Monday to Thursday, 8:30 a.m. to 5:30 p.m.<br>Friday, 8:30 a.m. to 5:00 p.m.<\/span><\/li>\n    <\/ul>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"cgf-bar\">\n  <div class=\"cgf-legal\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"cgf-pay\" src=\"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Verified.png\" alt=\"Verified by Visa y Mastercard ID Check\" width=\"101\" height=\"34\" loading=\"lazy\"><p>\u00a9 2026 Gesti\u00f3n de Riesgo RD, SRL. All rights reserved.<\/p><\/div>\n  <nav class=\"cgf-pol\" aria-label=\"Policies\">\n    <a href=\"\/en\/politicasdeprivacidad\/\">Privacy<\/a><a href=\"\/en\/terminos-y-condiciones-2\/\">Terms and Conditions<\/a><a href=\"\/en\/politicas-de-entrega\/\">Delivery<\/a><a href=\"\/en\/politicas-de-cancelacion\/\">Cancellation<\/a><a href=\"\/en\/politicas-de-devolucion\/\">Returns<\/a><a href=\"\/en\/politicas-de-reembolso\/\">Refunds<\/a><a href=\"\/en\/politicas-de-seguridad\/\">Security<\/a><a href=\"\/en\/preguntas-frecuentes\/\">Frequently asked questions<\/a>\n  <\/nav>\n<\/div>\n<\/footer>\n\n<style>#cgr-foot .cgf-ct li a.cgf-wa{display:inline-flex;vertical-align:middle;margin-left:8px}#cgr-foot .cgf-ct li a.cgf-wa svg{width:18px;height:18px;margin:0;fill:#25D366;stroke:none}<\/style><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Final EBA guidelines on environmental scenario analysis (EBA\/GL\/2025\/04): how to use scenarios to test short-term financial resilience and medium- to long-term business model resilience. They apply from 1 January 2027.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":26305,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":true,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"cgp_org":"Autoridad Bancaria Europea","cgp_siglas":"EBA","cgp_tipo":"Gu\u00eda","cgp_fecha":"2025-11-05","cgp_url":"https:\/\/www.eba.europa.eu\/publications-and-media\/press-releases\/eba-publishes-its-final-guidelines-environmental-scenario-analysis","cgp_pdf":"https:\/\/www.eba.europa.eu\/sites\/default\/files\/2025-11\/170da4c8-9b56-4fb0-ad60-94d433b7e866\/Guidelinesonenvironmentalscenarioanalysis.pdf","cgp_idioma":"Ingl\u00e9s","cgp_pais":"Uni\u00f3n Europea","cgp_temas":"ASG y clima,Pruebas de estr\u00e9s,Normativa y gobierno corporativo","cgp_portada":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/pub-eba-guidelines-environmental-scenario-analysis.jpg","cgp_verificado":"2026-10-12","cgp_origen":"nueva","cgp_fuente":"Supervisor","cgp_paginas":"77","cgp_autores":"","cgp_fecha_texto":"","cgp_portada_tipo":"doc","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[74],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26306","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-publicaciones-del-sector"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/pub-eba-guidelines-environmental-scenario-analysis.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26306","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26306"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26306\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":26307,"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26306\/revisions\/26307"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/26305"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26306"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26306"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26306"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}