{"id":25422,"date":"2026-07-29T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-29T13:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/?p=25422"},"modified":"2026-10-12T21:00:49","modified_gmt":"2026-10-13T01:00:49","slug":"ecb-geopolitical-risk-reverse-stress-test-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/ecb-geopolitical-risk-reverse-stress-test-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Geopolitical risk reverse stress test of euro area banks: 2026 SSM thematic stress test, final results"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"fusion-fullwidth fullwidth-box fusion-builder-row-1 fusion-flex-container nonhundred-percent-fullwidth non-hundred-percent-height-scrolling\" 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decoding=\"async\"><\/figure>\n<div class=\"cgp-intro\">\n<p class=\"cgp-kind\">Stress test \u00b7 Supervisor<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"cgp-title\">Geopolitical risk reverse stress test of euro area banks: 2026 SSM thematic stress test, final results<\/h2>\n<p class=\"cgp-lead\">A reverse stress test starts from the damage and asks each bank to build the scenario that produces it.<\/p>\n<dl class=\"cgp-facts\"><div><dt>Organization<\/dt><dd>ECB Banking Supervision<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Document date<\/dt><dd>29 July 2026<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Type<\/dt><dd>Stress test<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Language<\/dt><dd>English<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Scope<\/dt><dd>Euro area<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Length<\/dt><dd>16 pages<\/dd><\/div><\/dl>\n<div class=\"cgp-actions\"><a class=\"cgp-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu\/ecb\/pub\/pdf\/ssm.geopolstresstest202608.en.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><svg viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M7 3h7l5 5v12a1 1 0 0 1-1 1H7a1 1 0 0 1-1-1V4a1 1 0 0 1 1-1z\"\/><path d=\"M14 3v5h5\"\/><path d=\"M9 14h6\"\/><path d=\"M9 17h4\"\/><\/svg>Official document (PDF)<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"cgp-body\">\n<div class=\"cgp-main\">\n<h3>What it contains<\/h3>\n<p>ECB Banking Supervision concluded its 2026 thematic stress test, in which 110 significant euro area banks took part. Unlike the biennial solvency stress tests run with the European Banking Authority, it was a reverse stress test within the internal capital adequacy assessment process (ICAAP): the ECB set a level of capital depletion and each bank designed its own geopolitical scenario to reach it. For that reason its results are not comparable with those of the EU-wide tests.<\/p><p>The aim was to strengthen capital and recovery planning against geopolitical risks, one of the 2026-28 supervisory priorities. The depletion target was 300 basis points of the CET1 ratio, which the ECB considers conservative but not excessively severe: the median impact observed in EU banking sectors that suffered capital losses in a year over the past 15 to 20 years was about 225 to 250 basis points. Banks could not assume fiscal or other government support beyond what had already been approved.<\/p><p>Most banks translated the economic scenarios into risk drivers in a meaningful way and showed a good understanding of transmission channels, but the exercise left room for improvement: granularity and sensitivity of the models to the scenario, use of multiple scenarios, consistency between the narrative and the transmission channels, balance sheet projections that were at times too optimistic, realism of mitigating actions (many banks foresee similar actions that would lose effectiveness if taken at the same time) and insufficient capture of the relationship between solvency and liquidity.<\/p>\n<section class=\"cgp-importa\"><h3>Why it matters for risk management<\/h3><p>It offers a concrete example of how to apply a reverse stress test to a risk that is hard to model, such as geopolitical risk, and of what a supervisor observes about its quality. It can serve as a checklist for the ICAAP and internal stress tests, adapted to each institution\u2019s size and risk profile.<\/p><\/section>\n<p class=\"cgp-note\">Summary prepared by the Dominican Republic Risk Management Club from a reading of the original document, with the source verified on 7 October 2026. It does not replace reading the official text and is not advice.<\/p>\n<p class=\"cgp-back\"><a href=\"\/en\/publicaciones\/\">See all publications<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"cgp-side\">\n<section class=\"cgp-card\"><h3>Key points<\/h3><ul class=\"cgp-points\"><li>110 significant banks took part; the exercise replaced the reverse stress test that banks had to submit in their 2026 ICAAP.<\/li><li>Depletion target of 300 basis points of CET1, against a historical median impact of 225 to 250 basis points.<\/li><li>No additional fiscal support could be assumed; changes in the monetary policy rate were allowed.<\/li><li>Findings: sensitivity to the scenario, multiple scenarios, consistency of the narrative, dynamic balance sheet, realism of mitigating actions and the link between solvency and liquidity.<\/li><li>It is not comparable with the EU\u2019s biennial solvency stress tests.<\/li><\/ul><\/section>\n<section class=\"cgp-card\"><h3>How to cite it<\/h3><p class=\"cgp-cite\">European Central Bank, Banking Supervision (2026). Geopolitical risk reverse stress test of euro area banks: 2026 SSM thematic stress test, final results. Frankfurt: ECB, 29 July 2026.<\/p><\/section>\n<section class=\"cgp-card\"><h3>Topics<\/h3><ul class=\"cgp-chips\"><li><a href=\"\/en\/publicaciones\/?tema=pruebas-de-estres\">Stress tests<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"\/en\/publicaciones\/?tema=estabilidad-financiera\">Financial stability<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/section>\n<\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><link rel=\"stylesheet\" href=\"https:\/\/fonts.googleapis.com\/css2?family=Zilla+Slab:wght@500;600&display=swap\">\n<footer id=\"cgr-foot\" aria-label=\"Footer of the Risk Management Club\">\n<style>\n#main{padding-bottom:0!important}\n.fusion-fullwidth:has(#cgr-foot),.fusion-layout-column:has(#cgr-foot){padding-bottom:0!important;margin-bottom:0!important}\n#cgr-foot{--navy:#0E3351;--blue:#186392;--web:#1A80B6;--red:#E22A3A;--ink:#1C2632;--slate:#5B6775;--line:#D9E1EA;--mist:#F2F5F8;\n  position:relative;margin:96px 0 0;padding:0;background:var(--mist);box-shadow:0 0 0 100vmax var(--mist);clip-path:inset(0 -100vmax);\n  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All rights reserved.<\/p><\/div>\n  <nav class=\"cgf-pol\" aria-label=\"Policies\">\n    <a href=\"\/en\/politicasdeprivacidad\/\">Privacy<\/a><a href=\"\/en\/terminos-y-condiciones-2\/\">Terms and Conditions<\/a><a href=\"\/en\/politicas-de-entrega\/\">Delivery<\/a><a href=\"\/en\/politicas-de-cancelacion\/\">Cancellation<\/a><a href=\"\/en\/politicas-de-devolucion\/\">Returns<\/a><a href=\"\/en\/politicas-de-reembolso\/\">Refunds<\/a><a href=\"\/en\/politicas-de-seguridad\/\">Security<\/a><a href=\"\/en\/preguntas-frecuentes\/\">Frequently asked questions<\/a>\n  <\/nav>\n<\/div>\n<\/footer>\n\n<style>#cgr-foot .cgf-ct li a.cgf-wa{display:inline-flex;vertical-align:middle;margin-left:8px}#cgr-foot .cgf-ct li a.cgf-wa svg{width:18px;height:18px;margin:0;fill:#25D366;stroke:none}<\/style><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Results of the ECB\u2019s reverse stress test with 110 banks: each bank designed its own geopolitical scenario to deplete 300 basis points of CET1 capital, and the supervisor identified six areas for improvement.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":25546,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":true,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"cgp_org":"Supervisi\u00f3n Bancaria del Banco Central Europeo","cgp_siglas":"BCE","cgp_tipo":"Prueba de estr\u00e9s","cgp_fecha":"2026-07-29","cgp_url":"https:\/\/www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu\/ecb\/pub\/pdf\/ssm.geopolstresstest202608.en.pdf","cgp_pdf":"https:\/\/www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu\/ecb\/pub\/pdf\/ssm.geopolstresstest202608.en.pdf","cgp_idioma":"Ingl\u00e9s","cgp_pais":"Zona euro","cgp_temas":"Pruebas de estr\u00e9s,Estabilidad financiera","cgp_portada":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/pub-ecb-geopolitical-risk-reverse-stress-test-2026.jpg","cgp_verificado":"2026-10-07","cgp_origen":"nueva","cgp_fuente":"Supervisor","cgp_paginas":"16","cgp_autores":"","cgp_fecha_texto":"","cgp_portada_tipo":"doc","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[74],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-25422","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-publicaciones-del-sector"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/pub-ecb-geopolitical-risk-reverse-stress-test-2026.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25422","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25422"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25422\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":26320,"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25422\/revisions\/26320"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25546"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25422"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25422"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25422"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}