{"id":26380,"date":"2026-10-14T07:03:25","date_gmt":"2026-10-14T11:03:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/webinars-celebrados\/modelos-de-valor-en-riesgo-var-y-expected-shortfall-en-mercados-con\/"},"modified":"2026-11-03T22:32:12","modified_gmt":"2026-11-04T02:32:12","slug":"modelos-de-valor-en-riesgo-var-y-expected-shortfall-en-mercados-con","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/webinars-celebrados\/modelos-de-valor-en-riesgo-var-y-expected-shortfall-en-mercados-con\/","title":{"rendered":"Value-at-risk models (VaR and Expected Shortfall) in low-liquidity markets"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"fusion-fullwidth fullwidth-box fusion-builder-row-1 fusion-flex-container nonhundred-percent-fullwidth non-hundred-percent-height-scrolling\" style=\"--awb-border-radius-top-left:0px;--awb-border-radius-top-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-left:0px;--awb-flex-wrap:wrap;\" ><div 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.cgx-g{grid-template-columns:minmax(0,1fr);gap:28px}}\n@media(max-width:600px){#cgr-wb{font-size:16px}#cgr-wb h2{font-size:23px;margin-top:28px}#cgr-wb .cgx-side{padding:20px 18px}}\n.fusion-page-title-bar{background-image:linear-gradient(rgba(9,26,44,.64),rgba(9,26,44,.64)),url(\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/gestionderiesgo.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/WEBI-scaled.jpg?w=1920\")!important;background-size:cover!important;background-position:50% 40%!important}\n<\/style>\n<nav class=\"cgx-bc\" aria-label=\"Breadcrumb\"><a href=\"\/en\/webinars-celebrados\/\"><svg viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"2.2\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"m15 6-6 6 6 6\"\/><\/svg>Past webinars<\/a><\/nav>\n<div class=\"cgx-g\"><div class=\"cgx-m\"><div class=\"cgx-vid\"><iframe src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube-nocookie.com\/embed\/6CrtljSPLlQ?rel=0\" title=\"Value-at-risk models (VaR and Expected Shortfall) in low-liquidity markets\" loading=\"lazy\" allow=\"accelerometer; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; fullscreen\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div>\n<h2>What it is about<\/h2><p>Calibration and validation of market risk models, with value at risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall, in settings where liquidity and price availability are limited.<\/p><h2>Session summary<\/h2><p>The speaker explains how to calculate the value at risk (VaR) of a fixed-income portfolio in a low-liquidity market such as the Dominican one. He starts with identifying the risk factors (the yield curve, exchange rate, credit spread, optionality and liquidity), how to map positions to those factors (by principal, by duration or by cash flows) and the three calculation methodologies: parametric, historical simulation and Monte Carlo simulation, with their strengths and limits. He recalls that VaR is a percentile that says nothing about what happens after an exceedance, can fail in crises and does not always meet the conditions of a coherent risk measure.<\/p><p>He presents conditional value at risk, or Expected Shortfall, as the alternative: it does measure how bad losses can be once VaR is exceeded, and it is where Basel regulation is heading. He devotes an important part to the liquidity risk of instruments: the bid-ask spread, the price impact of one\u2019s own positions, market depth, and how to adjust the model with a liquidity-adjusted VaR and longer liquidation horizons. He closes with calibration through backtesting, the stress tests that complement it, and the governance and documentation of the model. The questions covered the effect of mark-to-market valuation on banks, expert judgment when a backtest fails and tests for balance-sheet interest rate risk.<\/p><h2>Topics covered<\/h2><ul class=\"cgx-tt\"><li>Risk factors and mapping of fixed income: principal, duration and cash flows<\/li><li>Parametric, historical simulation and Monte Carlo VaR<\/li><li>Limits of VaR and coherent measures: Expected Shortfall<\/li><li>Liquidity risk of instruments and liquidity-adjusted VaR<\/li><li>Backtesting (Kupiec and Christoffersen) and stress tests<\/li><li>Governance, documentation and independence in model validation<\/li><li>Questions: mark-to-market valuation, expert judgment and balance-sheet interest rate risk<\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n<aside class=\"cgx-side\" aria-label=\"Webinar details\"><h2>Webinar details<\/h2><dl><div><svg viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.75\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M7 2v3M17 2v3M3.5 9h17M5 4.5h14a1.5 1.5 0 0 1 1.5 1.5v13a1.5 1.5 0 0 1-1.5 1.5H5A1.5 1.5 0 0 1 3.5 19V6A1.5 1.5 0 0 1 5 4.5Z\"\/><\/svg><span><dt>Date<\/dt><dd>November 13, 2025<\/dd><\/span><\/div><div><svg viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.75\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><circle cx=\"12\" cy=\"12\" r=\"9\"\/><path d=\"M12 7v5l3 2\"\/><\/svg><span><dt>Duration<\/dt><dd>1 h 13 min<\/dd><\/span><\/div><div><svg viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.75\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><rect x=\"9\" y=\"3\" width=\"6\" height=\"11\" rx=\"3\"\/><path d=\"M5 11a7 7 0 0 0 14 0M12 18v3\"\/><\/svg><span><dt>Presented by<\/dt><dd><ul><li>Gilbert M\u00e9ndez<\/li><li><span>Moderator:<\/span> Rosa Bid\u00f3<\/li><\/ul><\/dd><\/span><\/div><div><svg viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.75\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M20.6 13.4 13.4 20.6a2 2 0 0 1-2.8 0L3 13V3h10l7.6 7.6a2 2 0 0 1 0 2.8Z\"\/><circle cx=\"7.5\" cy=\"7.5\" r=\"1.2\"\/><\/svg><span><dt>Topics<\/dt><dd><div class=\"cgx-ch\"><span style=\"background:#0F8A7E\">Market risk and valuation<\/span><\/div><\/dd><\/span><\/div><\/dl><a class=\"cgx-btn\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=6CrtljSPLlQ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><svg viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"currentColor\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M7 4.5v15l12.5-7.5L7 4.5Z\"\/><\/svg>Watch on YouTube<\/a><a class=\"cgx-gh\" href=\"\/en\/webinars-celebrados\/\">See all webinars<\/a><\/aside><\/div><\/div>\n<footer id=\"cgr-foot\" aria-label=\"Footer of the Risk Management 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Av. Tiradentes at the corner of Presidente Gonz\u00e1lez, Ensanche Naco, Santo Domingo<\/span><\/li>\n      <li><svg viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M5 4h4l2 5-2.5 1.5a11 11 0 0 0 5 5L15 13l5 2v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2A16 16 0 0 1 3 6a2 2 0 0 1 2-2\"\/><\/svg><span><a href=\"tel:+18097453289\">809-745-3289<\/a><br><a href=\"tel:+18494774959\">849-477-4959<\/a><a class=\"cgf-wa\" href=\"https:\/\/wa.me\/18494774959\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" aria-label=\"Escribir por WhatsApp al 849-477-4959 (se abre en una pesta\u00f1a nueva)\" title=\"WhatsApp\"><svg viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M17.472 14.382c-.297-.149-1.758-.867-2.03-.967-.273-.099-.471-.148-.67.15-.197.297-.767.966-.94 1.164-.173.199-.347.223-.644.075-.297-.15-1.255-.463-2.39-1.475-.883-.788-1.48-1.761-1.653-2.059-.173-.297-.018-.458.13-.606.134-.133.298-.347.446-.52.149-.174.198-.298.298-.497.099-.198.05-.371-.025-.52-.075-.149-.669-1.612-.916-2.207-.242-.579-.487-.5-.669-.51-.173-.008-.371-.01-.57-.01-.198 0-.52.074-.792.372-.272.297-1.04 1.016-1.04 2.479 0 1.462 1.065 2.875 1.213 3.074.149.198 2.096 3.2 5.077 4.487.709.306 1.262.489 1.694.625.712.227 1.36.195 1.871.118.571-.085 1.758-.719 2.006-1.413.248-.694.248-1.289.173-1.413-.074-.124-.272-.198-.57-.347m-5.421 7.403h-.004a9.87 9.87 0 01-5.031-1.378l-.361-.214-3.741.982.998-3.648-.235-.374a9.86 9.86 0 01-1.51-5.26c.001-5.45 4.436-9.884 9.888-9.884 2.64 0 5.122 1.03 6.988 2.898a9.825 9.825 0 012.893 6.994c-.003 5.45-4.437 9.884-9.885 9.884m8.413-18.297A11.815 11.815 0 0012.05 0C5.495 0 .16 5.335.157 11.892c0 2.096.547 4.142 1.588 5.945L.057 24l6.305-1.654a11.882 11.882 0 005.683 1.448h.005c6.554 0 11.89-5.335 11.893-11.893a11.821 11.821 0 00-3.48-8.413Z\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/span><\/li>\n      <li><svg viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><rect x=\"3\" y=\"5\" width=\"18\" height=\"14\" rx=\"2\"\/><path d=\"m3.5 6.5 8.5 6.5 8.5-6.5\"\/><\/svg><a href=\"mailto:info@gestionderiesgo.org\">info@gestionderiesgo.org<\/a><\/li>\n      <li><svg viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><circle cx=\"12\" cy=\"12\" r=\"9\"\/><path d=\"M12 7v5l3 2\"\/><\/svg><span>Monday to Thursday, 8:30 a.m. to 5:30 p.m.<br>Friday, 8:30 a.m. to 5:00 p.m.<\/span><\/li>\n    <\/ul>\n  <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"cgf-bar\">\n  <div class=\"cgf-legal\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"cgf-pay\" src=\"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Verified.png\" alt=\"Verified by Visa y Mastercard ID Check\" width=\"101\" height=\"34\" loading=\"lazy\"><p>\u00a9 2026 Gesti\u00f3n de Riesgo RD, SRL. All rights reserved.<\/p><\/div>\n  <nav class=\"cgf-pol\" aria-label=\"Policies\">\n    <a href=\"\/en\/politicasdeprivacidad\/\">Privacy<\/a><a href=\"\/en\/terminos-y-condiciones-2\/\">Terms and Conditions<\/a><a href=\"\/en\/politicas-de-reembolso\/\">Delivery and refunds<\/a><a href=\"\/en\/politicas-de-seguridad\/\">Security<\/a><a href=\"\/en\/preguntas-frecuentes\/\">Frequently asked questions<\/a>\n  <\/nav>\n<\/div>\n<\/footer>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":1980,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"100-width.php","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-26380","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/26380","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26380"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/26380\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":27900,"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/26380\/revisions\/27900"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1980"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gestionderiesgo.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26380"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}